New Delhi, May 28
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of an above-normal monsoon is expected to lead to a robust increase in agricultural production and rural demand while helping to keep inflation under control, according to a Crisil report released on Wednesday.
The IMD has predicted above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (June to September), estimating it at 106 per cent of the long-period average.
“If the forecast, which would mark the second consecutive year of above-normal monsoon, comes true, the economy could expect another year of healthy agricultural output, strengthening rural demand, and keeping a check on food prices,” the report states.
In the fiscal year 2025, gross value added (GVA) in the agriculture and allied sector grew 4.6 per cent, outpacing the decadal (fiscal 2015-24) average of 4.0 per cent. Similarly, consumer price inflation (CPI) fell sharply in the March quarter of fiscal 2025 on healthy food supplies that quelled food inflation. The positive tidings on inflation continued in April, when CPI inflation fell further to 3.2 per cent. These positive trends are likely to continue if rains align with the forecast, the report points out.