Global brokerage Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its positive long-term outlook on Indian equities, highlighting that India is likely to outperform in a global bear market scenario.

According to a note by the brokerage, the opportunity to invest in India’s long-term structural growth story is now, though it will require patience, given the potential.

The global financial services major believes that while near-term volatility may persist, “the long-term reward outweighs short-term noise”.

The firm advises investors to stay focused on India’s domestic growth story and selectively build exposure — particularly in domestically driven sectors —during periods of market stress.

The benign inflationary patterns suggest an aggressive rate cut trajectory by the Reserve Bank of India, with key policy rate likely to breach the ‘Neutral’ rate by March 2026, an SBI Research report said on Monday.

A cumulative rate cut of 125-150 bps is estimated in FY26 in the best case scenario with inflation to breach 3 per cent consistently for next three months barring any food price shock/heatwave, the report mentioned.

“With multi-year low inflation in March and benign inflation expectations going forward, we expect rate cuts of 75 basis points in June and August (H1) and another 50 bps cut in H2 — cumulative cuts of 125 bps going forward while 25 bps rate cut has already been initiated in February (that could put the terminal rate at 5.0-5.25 per cent by March 2026),” the SBI report projected.

“However, we feel, jumbo cuts of 50 bps, could be more effective than secular 25 bps tranches spread over the horizon,” it added.

Indian equity indices opened in the green on Monday as heavyweights like Adani Ports, Asian Paints, Titan and Tata Motors continued to support upward movement.

Around 9:22 am, Sensex was up 280 points or 0.35 per cent at 80,782 and Nifty was up 90 points or 0.37 per cent at 24,436.

Buying was seen in midcap and smallcap stocks. Nifty midcap 100 index was up 321 points or 0.6 per cent at 54,026 and Nifty smallcap 100 index was up 4 points at 16,446.

“After a positive opening, Nifty can find support at 24,300 followed by 24,200 and 24,000. On the higher side, 24,500 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 24,600 and 24,800,” said Hardik Matalia of Choice Broking.

On the sectoral front, auto, IT, pharma, FMCG and infra major gainers. PSU bank, media, realty were major laggards.

In a significant feat for the Indian oil sector, state-run Indian Oil Corporation on Saturday said its total sales volume, including exports, has crossed 100 million metric tonnes (MMT) for the first time ever.

In a post on X social media platform, the oil major said it a historic milestone for them.

“Our total sales volume, including exports, has crossed 100 MMT for the first time ever — a solid 3 per cent growth. Driven by 1.6 per cent rise in POL, 21 per cent in gas, and 6 per cent in petrochemicals, this marks a new chapter of excellence,” said the company.

The Eastern Command of the Border Security Force (BSF) witnessed a change of guard, with Mahesh Kumar Aggarwal taking over as Additional Director General (ADG).

The change comes at a time when the situation in Bangladesh continues to remain volatile, and the Indo-Bangladesh Border (IBB) is witnessing infiltration attempts.

A report submitted to the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) after the recent communal riots in the Murshidabad district of West Bengal stated that illegal immigrants from Bangladesh were part of the mobs that resorted to violence.

The Calcutta High Court ordered the deployment of the BSF in the district to control the situation.

India has banned all imports - direct and indirect - from Pakistan amid rising tensions with the neighbouring country over the barbaric Pahalgam terror attack.

According to a notification by the Commerce Ministry, "Direct or indirect import or transit of all goods originating in or exported from Pakistan, whether or not freely importable or otherwise permitted, shall be prohibited with immediate effect, until further orders."

"This restriction is imposed in the interest of national security and public policy. Any exception to this prohibition shall require prior approval of the Government of India," said the notification.

A provision in this regard has been added in the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2023 "to prohibit direct or indirect import or transit of all goods originating in or exported from Pakistan," it said in the notification dated May 2.

Benchmark indices ended with marginal gains in a highly volatile session on May 2 and volatility is expected to stay elevated due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, developments related to tariffs, and the unfolding Q4 earnings season and major US economic data points, analysts said on Saturday.

The Nifty on Friday opened strong and surged to an intraday high of 24,589 in the first half of the session. However, profit booking at higher levels erased those gains, leaving the index to close nearly flat.

The Nifty finished the day up 12.50 points, or 0.05 per cent, at 24,346.70.

“For the week, the BSE Sensex gained 1.6 per cent, while the Nifty50 rose 1.2 per cent. The BSE Midcap index declined 0.4 per cent and the Smallcap index ended flat,” said a note from Bajaj Broking Research.

Among sectoral performers, media, energy, IT, and oil & gas posted gains of 0.3–0.7 per cent. On the other hand, power, metal, telecom, pharma, realty, and consumer durables sectors saw losses ranging from 0.5 to 2 per cent.

Pathbreaking initiatives like ‘Make in India’, ‘Digital India’ and achievements in sectors like energy, IT, infrastructure, health, and tourism are also being showcased at the six-month-long Expo 2025 in Japan, Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has informed.

In a post on X social media platform, the minister said that the India Pavilion- BHARAT at the expo in Osaka is "a remarkable representation of India's cultural richness and commercial successes, and welcomed its 5,000th visitor today”.

“This space is a stunning display of India's growing international presence and the giant strides that the country has taken in the last decade, under PM @NarendraModi ji's leadership,” Goyal added.

One of the highlights of the pavilion has been the display of the Chandrayaan-3 landing on the moon's south pole and India's advances in space technology.

“I am confident this expo will provide a big boost to trade and tourism in India and further cement our role as the world's trusted partner,” the minister mentioned.

A working group set up by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has recommended extending the trading hours for the call money market.

The group suggested that the trading window should remain open till 7 p.m. instead of the current 5 p.m.

This move aims to help banks manage their funds better in line with the needs of the real-time payment system.

India's foreign exchange reserves rose for the eighth straight week to touch $688.13 billion as of April 25, according to the latest RBI data released on Friday.

The foreign exchange kitty surged by $1.98 billion during the week.

The foreign currency component of the reserves increased by $2.17 billion to $580.66 billion.

The gold reserves component of the forex reserves decreased by $207 million to $84.37 billion while Special Drawing Rights (SDR) went up by $21 million to $18.59 billion.

The declining trend in forex reserves of earlier months due to revaluation and forex market interventions by the RBI to help reduce volatility in the rupee has now been reversed over the last two months .