New Delhi, May 19
India’s GDP growth is expected to increase to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY2025 from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025 despite the enhanced global uncertainty due to the US tariff turmoil during the quarter, according to an ICRA report released on Monday.
The report also highlights an increase in consumer sentiment in both the rural and urban areas.
ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar said, “In a quarter characterised by enhanced uncertainty on the global front, ICRA estimates India’s GDP growth to have risen to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY2025 from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025. Both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.”
While the robust increase in the output of most rabi crops is likely to have boosted the agri-GVA growth in Q4 FY2025, the tepid pace of expansion in the industrial volume growth as well as the deterioration in the performance of several service-sector indicators is expected to have weighed on the GVA growth of these segments,” she added.
Based on the available data for the Centre’s indirect taxes and subsidies, ICRA estimates that the growth in net indirect taxes rose quite sharply in the quarter from 6.8 per cent in Q3 FY2025, aided by a sharp contraction in the Centre’s subsidy disbursement (-33 per cent in Q4 FY2025 vs. +31.1 per cent in Q3 FY2025.