New Delhi, May 21
The Indian economy is projected to expand by 7.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024-25, due to an improvement in the agriculture sector and a sharp increase in net indirect tax, according to Barclays.
"We think the agriculture sector growth is likely to show improvement year-on-year, as suggested by advance estimates of crop production, which show record high wheat production. Accordingly, we estimate agriculture GVA growth at 5.8 per cent in Q4, accelerating from 5.6 per cent in Q3," Barclays's India Chief Economist, Aastha Gudwani, said.
Meanwhile, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan announced on Monday that India’s foodgrain production has increased by over 106 lakh tonnes to 1,663.91 lakh tonnes in 2024-25, which represents a 6.83 per cent increase over the corresponding figure of the previous year.
"The production of the rabi crop was 1,600.06 lakh tonnes in 2023-24, now it has increased to 1,645.27 lakh tonnes," the minister said.
Barclays expects GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal at 7.2 per cent due to a sharp rise in net indirect tax and real GDP growth at 6.4 per cent for the full financial year.
High indirect tax collections reflect strong economic activity in the manufacturing and services sectors.
Moody’s Ratings had, earlier this month, pegged India's GDP growth at 6.3 per cent for 2025 and expects the economy to pick up momentum in 2026 to record a 6.5 per cent growth rate.
Moody’s forecast is in line with the IMF outlook, which sees India as the only major economy in the world to record an over 6 per cent growth rate in 2025.
The estimates are lower than the second official estimate by the National Statistical Office of 6.5 per cent for FY25, with an implicit forecast of 7.6 per cent for the fourth quarter of the financial year.
Economists estimate the economy to have grown anywhere between 6.4 per cent and 7.2 per cent in the January to March 2025 quarter and expect GDP to have expanded by 6.3 per cent to 6.4 per cent in FY25.
ICRA has projected the year-on-year expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY2025 and full year GDP growth at 6.3 per cent. "Both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty. Services sector exports continued to show double-digit growth, while merchandise exports contracted in YoY terms in the fourth quarter of FY2025 after expanding in the third quarter of the fiscal," its Chief Economist, Head-Research & Outreach, Aditi Nayar, said.
The government will come out with data for Q4 and the full FY25 on May 30.