Mumbai, June 27
India’s GDP is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent in FY26, with CPI inflation around an average 4.0 per cent, a report showed on Friday, adding that it does not expect any further rate cuts from the RBI “unless downside risks to growth materialise”.
The Current Account Deficit or CAD (as per cent of GDP) is projected at 1.0 per cent in FY25 and 0.9 per cent in FY26, while the fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.4 per cent, according to a CareEdge Ratings report.
“The 10-year G-Sec yield is expected to range between 6.0 per cent–6.2 per cent by the end of FY26, and the USD-INR exchange rate is projected to trade between 85 and 87 by the end of FY26,” the report mentioned.
In the recent MPC, RBI signalled prioritising growth amid easing inflation concerns. In a significant liquidity measure, the RBI also announced a phased 100 bps CRR cut starting September, which is expected to inject approximately Rs 2.5 lakh crore of durable liquidity into the system by December 2025.
For FY26, the RBI retained its GDP growth forecast at 6.5 per cent, while lowering the CPI inflation projection to 3.7 per cent from 4.0 per cent.