New Delhi, July 18
Environmental factors such as the temperature, the water level in lakes and ponds in winter, and the presence of mute swans (Cygnus olor) could be key reasons that predict the potential of an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) occurring in Europe, according to a study.
The findings, published in the journal Scientific Reports, are derived from a machine learning model trained on the characteristics of 21st-century European HPAI outbreaks and could help improve future monitoring programmes.
The model showed that the coldest recorded temperature in autumn had the greatest effect on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring.
However, the actual effect varied considerably by region. In some areas, warmer minimum temperatures were associated with a higher likelihood of an outbreak; while in others, they were associated with a lower likelihood.
“HPAI outbreaks are a serious concern for both animal and public health. A wave of HPAI outbreaks across the Northern Hemisphere during 2022 was associated with an increase in the number of avian influenza virus infections in mammals, which subsequently increased the likelihood of a spillover event in humans,” said Joacim Rocklöv from Heidelberg University in Germany.