New Delhi, Sep 24
India’s solar module and cell capacity are expected to touch 200 gigawatt-peak (GWp) and 100 GWp, respectively, by FY28 end, outpacing the annual domestic module demand of 50 GWp over the next three years, a report said on Wednesday.
Integrated players in the solar space are likely to be more resilient to margin pressure, leading to consolidation of smaller module capacities.
"As of July 2025, India’s module manufacturing capacity reached 118 GWp, while cell manufacturing capacity stood at 27 GWp. However, effective operational capacity is estimated at 80-85 GWp for modules and 11-13 GWp for cells, with the remainder in the stabilisation phase," CareEdge ratings said in its report.
As a result, module production is likely to increasingly rely on exports, even as cell production is also likely to eclipse domestic demand in the medium term.
However, nascent integration of solar equipment capacity, supply chain dependence on China, uncertainty shrouding export prospects, and lagging RE capacity additions due to systemic issues are some headwinds that remain monitorable over the medium term, he added.
The report highlighted that the reduction in GST rates could lead to project cost savings of 4-5 per cent.
Meanwhile, tightening policies in the US could impact India’s module exports, although the medium-term outlook remains promising, provided Indian players manoeuvre compliance and maintain cost competitiveness.