Geneva, May 29
The global economic outlook has worsened since the start of the year, as rising economic nationalism and tariff volatility fuel uncertainty, but South Asia, led by India, is seen as a growth driver, according to the latest World Economic Forum (WEF) report.
The ‘Chief Economists Outlook’ reveals that a strong majority (79 per cent) of surveyed economists view the current geoeconomic developments as signs of a significant structural shift for the global economy rather than a temporary disruption.
Amid trade tensions and a rise in nationalism, the world’s chief economists are unanimous in predicting a poor year for the global economy.
However, growth expectations diverge sharply by region, and optimism remains highest for South Asia, propelled by India, where 33 per cent of economists expect strong or very strong growth this year.
Most chief economists (77 per cent) anticipate weak or very weak growth through 2025 in the US, alongside high inflation and a weakening dollar. By contrast, they were cautiously optimistic about Europe’s prospects for the first time in years, mainly because of expectations of fiscal expansion, notably in Germany. The outlook for China remains muted, and the chief economists were divided over whether it will reach its target of 5 per cent GDP growth this year, the WEF report states.